It look like a triangle breakout happened to Inari today. Tomorrow onward should be shooting up.

"I like buying (shares) as (the stock market) goes down, and the more it goes down, the more I like to buy ... I don't know how to tell what the market's going to do. I do know how to pick out reasonable businesses to own over a long period of time," Buffet says.

"With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can't figure out when it will happen. You don't want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you're right about what, you don't have to worry about when."

In Berkshire Hathaway's 2013 Annual Report, Buffet suggests some fundamentals of investing.

» When promised quick profits, respond with a quick "no";

» Focus on the future productivity of the asset you are considering;

» If you instead focus on the prospective price change of a contemplated purchase, you are speculating; and

» That a given asset has appreciated in the recent past is never a reason to buy it.

Sometimes, "a great investment opportunity occurs when a marvellous business encounters a one-time huge, but solvable, problem," he suggests. This "marvellous business opportunity" was American Express (Amex).

In 1963, a "salad oil scandal" triggered panic selling in Amex shares, causing its price to plunge by 50% to US$35 per share. A vegetable oil company had secured huge loans from an Amex subsidiary by using falsified documents, a debacle that cost the credit card company about US$58 million.

To determine whether the imbroglio would prompt Amex cardholders to stop using their credit card, Buffet spent the evening with the cashier at Ross' Steak House in Omaha, his hometown. Realising diners weren't bothered by the impropriety, Buffet bought 5% of Amex for US$13 million.

Berkshire Hathaway's 2013 Annual Report shows it currently owns 151.6 million Amex shares purchased at a cost of nearly US$1.3 billion against a market value of US$13.76 billion.

Another example of contrarian investing is Berkshire's purchase of a railroad company called Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) in 2009 amid the recent recession. Buffet said buying America's second-largest railroad company was an "all-in-wager on the economic future of the United States."

Buffet's reasoning was simple. As the US economy revived, so would demand for goods to be shipped by train. Furthermore, railroads are a more fuel efficient form of transport than trucks.

Buffet's analysis has been validated. Five years after buying BNSF, the railroad is now Berkshire's single-biggest profit driver, contributing US$1.65 billion in pre-tax profits in the third quarter last year.

Like all investors, Buffet has made major investment mistakes. However, these missteps haven't had a catastrophic impact on Berkshire's entire portfolio.

Ironically, one big mistake was buying a controlling stake in Berkshire, then a struggling textile mill, so that Buffet could fire the then CEO who had tried to undercut an offer the Sage of Omaha had made to sell his initial stake in Berkshire.

"And for 20 years, I fought the textile business before I gave up. If instead of putting that money into the textile business originally, we just started out with the insurance company, Berkshire would be worth twice as much as it is now," Buffet said.

Another miscalculation was acquiring a stake in Tesco. In 2006, when Buffet first started accumulating Tesco shares, the UK's leading supermarket chain was expanding worldwide, including into the US where it opened new stores called "Fresh and Easy".

Although Tesco issued a profit warning in 2012 and investors were abandoning the stock, Buffet remained unfazed and continued buying more shares.

Last year, Tesco admitted it had overstated its profits by £263 million, UK regulators began a full-scale investigation and eight top executives were suspended. Only then did Buffet concede he had been wrong about Tesco.

Nonetheless, for those who are discerning and bold, severe downturns in the stock market offer singular buying opportunities.

"A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy," Buffet says in Berkshire's latest annual report.

source : http://www.thesundaily.my/node/292774

《成就》最近与黄达先生进行了视讯专访。黄达先生有“市场大师（Market Master）”的称号，他从事投资交易工作已有25年，对全球各地市场及各类资产都有研究。我们向他提出了一些投资者目前都相当关注的问题，比如油价是否会持续下跌、大宗商品的走势、能源股是否已经跌至“超值”水平。本文摘录了他在访谈中提到的一些重点。

油价可能保持在35至55美元之间

我们首先谈到了油价的课题。石油价格自去年6月以来持续下跌，如今已下跌至每桶50美元以下。黄达先生认为，在今年第一季之内，油价应会介于35美元至55美元之间，因此近期内还是有下跌的可能性。至于油价是否会回升，就要看美元和欧元的价位。他指出，美元和欧元通常是往相反方向走的，而欧元已经下跌了好几个月，因此可能会在不久后回调。当美元下跌时，油价就可能回升。

希腊的去留问题

由于他提到了欧元区，我们也就单刀直入，询问他希腊是否有可能被踢出欧元区。黄达先生首先分析了让希腊留在欧元区的利弊。对于欧元区的大国来说，让希腊留在欧元区，就表示它们必须继续贷款给希腊，这会令各成员国继续面对债务负担。如果把希腊踢出局，它们就能够解决债务问题，欧元也可能回升。由于欧元区最大经济体德国的经济开始放缓，它应会坚决反对再借钱给希腊。

然而，如果希腊真的脱离欧元区，此先例一开，其他欧元区小国之后也可能会掉队。

黄达先生表示，这个月底将出现怎样的局面，相当难判断。他指出，由于目前欧元区的债务问题还在可控制的范围内，希腊在这个季度应不会脱离欧元区，但未来的事情就难说了。

黄金短期内有望上涨

随着美元上涨，大宗商品的价格持续滑落，黄达先生表示，这样的情况与去年类似，即美元上涨，铜价和农业股都下跌。如今，铜又跌到了5年来的低点。他认为，在这样的情况下，一些资金会流出金属市场，找寻可保值的工具（safe haven），金价可能将因此上涨。

他指出，黄金在近一、两个月内可能会回升至每盎司1,300美元，甚至1,350美元，1,200美元则为支持水平。

避能源股和农业股，买优质航空股

在石油下跌的大趋势下，黄达先生认为，目前最好还是避开能源股。他说，一些人可能认为，油价下跌了，石油提炼公司的成本理应会减少，但实际情况并非如此，因为这些公司一般都是买入石油期货。它们之前可能是以相对较高的价格买入原油，如今产品的价格下跌将影响它们的盈利。

他也认为投资者应该暂时避开农业股，如生产橡胶、白米、大豆、棕榈油的企业。

那投资者可考虑买入哪些股票呢？他认为投资者目前可考虑的是一些稳当的航空公司，比如新航（Singapore Airlines），但他特别强调，他所指的并非廉价航空公司。

既然提到廉价航空，我们就顺道请他谈一谈亚洲航空（AirAsia）的前景。他表示，短期之内，亚航受到空难的影响，其股价肯定是会处于跌势，长期而言是否值得投资，则见仁见智，一切都要看股票操作的情况、公司的盈利表现和业务发展来定夺。他说，如果要短期投资（投机），以技术图表作为依据，应可觅得一些获利机会。

能源股已“超值”了吗？

基于油价从去年年中至今已下跌了超过一半，相信大家都很好奇，能源股如今是不是已经跌到了一个“超值”的水平，值得趁低吸纳了呢？黄达先生用了一个比较迂回的方式来解答这个问题。他说，投资者在决定是否要趁低买入能源股之前，应该要量力而为，因为除了考虑价位的尺度之外，投资者也要考虑时间的尺度，毕竟油价会停留在目前的水平多久，没有人说得准。如果油价保持在每桶40美元的价位长达一年，换句话说，能源股在一年内都不会有上升的趋势。

笔者的解读是：如果油价短期内都不回弹，你有能力（financial muscle）等吗？

通货紧缩，利率持续偏低，股市难跌

由于油价下跌，而许多国家的通货膨胀率原本就不高，通货紧缩（deflation）成了一个大家关注的课题。

黄达先生认为，通缩的情况其实已经开始了，而他的言语之间透露的讯息是：这一切似乎都是美国的策略。他说，在美国于去年停止实行量化宽松政策（QE）之后，市场一度担心会闹钱荒，但至今为止都没有出现这样的趋势。利率不升，美元却上涨，造成油价下跌，达到近6年来的低点。在面对低油价和通缩的情况下，各国央行都没有办法加息，这样一来，股市怎么会下跌呢？

所以他认为，在今年上半年，股市的表现将会保持稳定，就算会下跌，也只是市场的调整，不会发生股市大跌的情况。

新兴国家可能发生危机

各国经济增长不高，同时又可能面对通货紧缩的情况，它们是不是会无法取得足够的经济增长来偿还债务呢？

黄达先生认为，这样的情况在今年上半年应该不会发生。他的依据是，目前油价下跌，但金价却上涨，这是一种奇怪的现象，而这也说明经济应该还是平稳地运作着。但如果到了下半年，油价还是持续下跌，那我们就该留意俄罗斯、拉美、东欧等石油出产国。一旦这些国家的经济放缓，它们的国债将会被抛售，在3至6个月内将有一半的经济体会垮下。

来源 ： http://cj.sharesinv.com/20150115/1237

这是一名前辈分享的投资生涯

我很早就接触股票，大概是小学时候5、6年级。
问题是到了我大学3年级，才真正买股。
当时买股没有好好学习，只听消息，看报纸新闻来买卖。
到了出来打工，也没有好好真正学习，还是听消息看报纸作决定买卖。
就这样买卖股票大概10年岁月。
当然，这段时间有亏有赚，赚都是赚少少，赚5只股=亏一只股就亏完了。
赚少少就卖，亏多多不舍得卖，等亏很多了，麻木了才卖，因为这时卖已经没知觉了，所以就舍得卖。

这十年来买了又卖，都是白白作的，没有什么盈亏，
奇怪的是，就算这10年里没什么盈亏，但我还是乐此不疲的继续投机，
从来没反省过到底投机来做什么，白白浪费了十年的时间。
至到越买越大的时候，有一次买入了10粒Transmile在RM9.30，后来RM10.50也都不知要卖，以为会起到RM13块才卖，
结果下跌到RM6，还好懂得怕才砍了。
这次第一次在个股亏了30多K。
我彻夜难眠。白天里我左思右想，越想越伤心，很想大哭一场。
投机了10年，第一次有所反省，才知道要学看公司的三表，要能知道从基本账目看，避开假账风险。
这次的反省不多，就是这些。

经过这次大失败后，当时我一直觉得要把亏的30k赚回来很是困难。
因为在我10年的纪录里，一年内根本没累计赚过30K，那么要如何赚回亏的钱呢？当时对我来说真的是最大的难题。
这也是当时每当想起都很想痛哭的原因，因为根本没有什么方法能让我从股市里赚回亏的钱。

经过这次过后，买股之前都会去看看公司3表，但是问题来了。
对账目根本没有基础的我，要如何看得懂？
第一个看得明白的是P/L account，当时最厉害看的是以EPS作投资参考。
第二就是学看Balance sheet，当时最厉害看的也不过是看公司的Cash on hand，borrowing这些。
第三是Cash flow statement，这个就根本看不明白。
虽然看得懂一和二的数据，问题是没办法分析数据到底好坏。
人家说数据是会说话的，当时看到的数据就是数据，无法知道这数据到底算好还是不好。
当时身边没有朋友投资股票，也没有可问的朋友。
结果一切就以最基本的EPS，cash on hand和borrowing来做买入个股的指南。

就这样，又开始投机了一年。
这次投机成绩比较好，开始有赚了，慢慢赚回之前亏的30K。

问题又来了。
这次以为自己很厉害，开始投入更大的资金，我又一步一步走向危机。
这次经典大亏损是买入了Ranhil。
当时的Ranhil，是以基建，油气，水务和发电4大业务为首。
还传在印尼挖到石油，当时新闻最热，CEO 咸蛋根本就是骗子。
在还没有确定/证实油井是否能产石油的可能性时，咸蛋本人就已经在媒体放话说油井储存有多少多少berrel的潜能。
一次又一次的报道利好，维持一两个月。
每当咸蛋在媒体报导，股价就冲一冲，之后又慢慢回软，连续还几次这样的走势。

奇怪的是，但是公司最后一次报导是说有关当局已经把sample送去做test来确定到底地下储存的量和开采的可能性。
咸蛋还说公司一定会在最快的时间内把结果公布。
之后，大概有3~4个月的时间，再也没看到有关Ranhill的石油报导。
当时股价也从我买入的RM2.40左右回落到RM1.80。
再过一两个月，咸蛋终于正式发布消息，当然是失败收场。最后放弃了印尼的石油开采。
Ranhill股价也慢慢来到1.60左右。
在还没有发布消息前，相信咸蛋和朋党在这4~5个月内，已经悄悄出了所有可卖出的ranhill股份后，才作出宣布。
可怜的我和散户们，还傻傻等好消息。   

除了以上油气，ranhill其实还有很大的基建生意，都是政府的project，如高速公路建造，医院，
还有中东地区的大型房屋建设，另外还有Johor州水务，发电和国外Oil & gas 稳赚生意。
但是奇怪的是，虽然ranhill的revenue非常的大，盈利却年年少得可怜。
当时的咸蛋，也是大声喊话，说ranhill是大马数一数二的大型基建公司，
业务规模庞大又稳健，至少值得RM4~5块，为何市场只给他RM2.6而已。
另外各大报章也竞相报导Ranhill有多么的好，尤其当时的OSK，还出了好多research report，
大力唱好Ranhill，目票价4~5快。至此以后，我不再相信投行们的分析报告。

在投资Ranhill之前，我也看过了公司3表，觉得ok。问题是当时所谓的Ok是看数据还是数据，
我还未能看出数据会说话的功力。
而当时也觉得就算印尼石油发展失败，以现有的多元化业务和稳定的订单，ranhill应该不错。
结果Ranhil的股价下跌到RM0.60。后来私有化好像是RM1.00左右，忘了。
咸蛋在私有化前把股价压到RM0.6，其间放出了很多不利消息。
我在RM1.20时砍了。
当时会砍，也是因为跌很多，麻木了才舍得砍。后来2008年股灾也来临了。
这就是散户跌不舍得砍，直到一天醒了才砍，但已经是惨不忍睹。

这次的损失，个股亏损100K++。
上次亏损，我还半醒，只20%。这次的学费，我醒了90%。
1）涉及航空业的别碰
2）以竞标工程为主要业务的公司不要碰
3）公司3表必须要看到里面的数据会跟你说话才买
4）没有诚信的CEO，不要买他的公司
5）不要100%相信报纸，投行们的分析报告（只能作参考）
6）所有的买股，都是要自己研究后，才来判断买卖。

这里要表达的是，无论多忙，要在股市里成功，必须下苦功。
之前打工，我也是放工后和weekend研究公司。有时很累，就看少一点。
刚开始不熟，觉得很难，公司又多，但是长年累月，只要有恒心，看得越多越厉害。
到最后很多公司都熟悉了，你会觉得越来越容易。
现在不是买股的时候，却是研究好公司的时候，
我想你可以先拿一些你熟悉的公司和消费蓝筹股看起。
有时你想要投资的行业，就从那个行业的公司看起。

source : investtalk

1. Attractive facade

Just like first impressions count in people, so does property. You must be impressed at first glance. An attractive facade with elements of luxury and a classy design gives an immediate positive feeling. If you have to convince yourself when looking at a facade for the first time, imagine how a future buyer will feel when you wish to sell it off one day. In property, good looks count.

2. A grand entrance and lobby

Good looks must follow through. High-end condominiums are not the only ones today that come with a grand entrance and lobby. These days, everyone wants to live well. A grand entrance and lobby add tremendous intrinsic and extrinsic value to a condominium and gives residents a sense that the developer cares and respects their buyers.

3. Excellent parking space design

Are cars a hassle to park? Are corners too narrow and are the walls filled with bumps from accidents? Parking spots must be properly designed for the convenience of residents. Some older condos use a multi-storey or a spiral multi-storey carpark. This is not the best choice, simply because it is a daily discomfort for the driver. A basement carpark is most preferable, and the parking space has to be designed to allow for wide turning.

Each car park should measure 3.5m (height) and 2.5m by 5m for comfortable parking. With this size, even a small lorry can park.

But all the ease in parking won’t matter if the parking area is not brightly lit. The parking area must look and feel safe enough for residents to walk about at night. An eerie parking space eats into the safety factor and pulls down investment value.

4. Sunny and luxurious elevators and lobby

If you feel afraid riding in an elevator, chances are you won’t be keen to live there. That’s why elevators must be designed with care. While some developers take on the standard design, a well-designed elevator with a more expensive look, perhaps even a hotel design, will go a long way in giving comfort to the resident. The elevator must be spacious so many can enter at a go and it has to be well maintained.

A see-through elevator is preferable, as this means added security, especially for the lone person riding it at night. There is no sense of being alone as the outside can see inside. Even if the ride is long, the resident is able to enjoy views rather than look at the steely walls of an old lift.

The lobby in which the resident waits for the elevator is of equal importance. If the lobby is dim and lonely in design, even a minute’s wait feels like a long time. However, with a nice and bright lobby, residents won’t have issues waiting even for five minutes.

5. Wide and comfortable corridors

Dark corridors, narrow stretches and a lonely feel are no-nos. Today’s condominium corridors must be wide, preferably with plenty of lighting and ventilation. There musn’t be a dark and dank feel. Residents must be comfortable walking through it whatever the time of day.

6. Practical layout design

You may not notice it, but the best condominiums in town do not stinge on land. Tower to tower distance must be at least 120 ft apart. Towers which are too close give a feeling of high density and claustrophobia. It also looks slightly more barrack-like and less prestigious. Look out also for the air-conditioning compressor. A well thought-out condominium will keep unsightly contraptions out of sight.

7. Practical facilities and big open spaces

When a condominium development has big open spaces, value is enhanced. Condominium land is typically small, and to enhance space, a basement car park is a must. However, the cost of building a basement carpark is high and often developers shy away from it.

“The footprint of the building versus the land should be about 30%,” says Goh. “The open spaces should be reserved for jogging and cycling tracks. Open spaces are a contrast to the tall buildings and this gives far more enjoyment to residents. If the footprint percentage is too high, it becomes too dense and it’s hard for the resident to relax and enjoy.”

Look at the master floorplan of the whole development to gauge the percentage.

8. Sufficient parking ratio

The next time you go to a showroom or visit a property exhibition, ask the salesperson how many parking bays the property has. There must be enough parking space for the residents. Take the assumption that every resident has two cars and do the math. If a condominium has 800 units – it must have more than 1,600 parking bays as visitors have to be catered to as well. Assuming it has 1,300 (and that is very likely) that’s not a good sign.

Residents are unaware that once parking availability is inadequate, problems arise. A look around some existing condominiums is proof. Residents will be forced to park outside – often far away, and jam up the entrance. This equates to bad traffic and poorer security once the number of residents increases.

9. Reasonable maintenance fees and the promise of continuous good maintenance well into the future

When most people buy a condominium, they often hope the number of units is low and equally the maintenance fees. However, this is not the best scenario.

“Maintenance fees are very important because maintaining a condominium is very costly,” says Goh. “If the fees are too low and the number of units is low, there won’t be sufficient funds to maintain the development. A condominium which isn’t well-maintained clearly goes down in value. With low maintenance fees, you need the economies-of-scale to back it up. I recommend looking at a development with a minimum of 1000 units.”

10. Unit must be semi-furnished upon vacant possession (VP)

When a resident moves in, he must be able to switch on the lights and move in immediately. The developer should build a condominium where the main fixtures like lighting, cabinetry and kitchen appliances are all ready.

“For condominiums to sell today, they must be semi-furnished,” says Goh. “From my research, a condominium takes about two to five years before it becomes well-inhabited. This is too long and discouraging for those who want to stay in a thriving development. Often the long process is caused by the renovation works and looking for a designer and contractor. Busy people don’t have the time, and that is why units remain vacant for a long time.”

It’s also common for people to exceed their renovation budget. RM40,000 can become RM100,000 and the result is more stress. When the developer takes away this headache by including the main fixtures, it benefits both developer and resident greatly.

If a condominium is not semi-furnished, residents will have to put up with renovation works by others every few months. Dusty, noisy and unsafe.

When a condominium is semi-furnished, people move in faster and a majority of renovation works are cut down.

Bring this checklist wherever you go and most likely you won’t go wrong.

Original article

牛市行情最怕什么？踏空！熊市被套都不可怕，但牛市中不赚钱就会引发心态上的巨大变化，因此牛市选股更要注意。中小投资者由于资金量小，因此集中投资不超过3-5只股票才是明智的选择，长线投资更适合。那么如何才能从千余只股票中找出值得长线投资的个股呢？俺总结了以下方法：

首先是十不选。凡上市公司有以下十种情况中任何一种，就一票否决。通过这种方法可以排除95%以上的公司。

一、有信用污点的公司不选。包括：大股东掏空上市公司，虚假陈述，隐瞒应当披露的信息，内幕交易，提供虚假会计信息等等。

二、整体不景气行业的公司不选。行业整体不景气，上市公司的经营就会受影响。

三、母公司经营不善的公司不选。上市公司的母公司常被称为集团公司，如果集团公司经营不善，那么上市公司的经营能力往往也好不到哪里去，而且掏空上市公司的危险性也会上升。

四、主业不突出，搞多元化经营的公司不选。

五、企业规模过小的公司不选。规模过小的上市公司没有形成规模效应，经营成本高、抗风险能力弱。

六、绩差绩平公司不选。

七、5年内业绩大幅波动的公司不选。这一条同时排除了许多上市时间短的公司。公司业绩大幅波动说明公司经营不稳定，风险较高。要考察公司的稳定性，5年时间是必须的。

八、无稳定现金分配的公司不选。稳定的现金分配证明了公司经营的稳定性和业绩的真实性。造假的公司只能造出帐面利润而不能造出现金，只能通过送转股分配而不能通过现金分配。

九、被媒体质疑的公司不选。

十、庄股、累计涨幅巨大的公司不选。

在排除了上述上市公司后，可选择的公司已经不多。如果投资者觉得所有股票都被排除了，那索性就不要买股票。如果还有股票没被排除，那么就挑选符合下列四种条件的股票。

一、选有垄断性的公司。垄断包括地理位置垄断、资源垄断、行政许可垄断、技术垄断等。排位靠前的垄断方式可靠性较高，垄断是超额利润的来源。

二、选在国际竞争中具有比较优势的产业的公司。

三、选牛市中受益龙头公司。券商股在牛市中赚得盘满钵满。券商为何赚钱：一是承销。中国不缺少上市公司资源，如果搞注册制，1年内将有5000家上市公司，这必然需要券商投行的支撑，因此从承销角度看，是可持续的。二是经纪业务。现在每天成交都在7000亿左右，券商赚大了。

四、选低价公司。这与多数人的想法不符。但事实是：越是高价的股票其价值越容易被高估，俺在多年投资中，为我带来较好收益的几乎全部是低价股票，像价值被严重低估，跌到白菜价601打头的中字头低价股，哪一只没翻番？

当然，通过上述方法选择股票后，还要掌握好介入时机。

来源 ： 玉名：牛市选股中的十大禁忌

Warren Buffett is the person i admired the most. His life advice are always remembered and practiced by me. Here are some of them :

1. Give your mind some clarity.

“I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make less impulse decisions than most people in business. I do it because I like this kind of life.” 

2. Never forget thy business basics.

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” 

3. Know what you're getting into, before you get into it.

"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."

4. Be smart -- and realistic.

"I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will."

5. Don't fake it till you make it.

"After all, you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."

6. Always know who you're dealing with.

"You can’t make a good deal with a bad person."

7. Act with honor and integrity.

"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you’ll do things differently."

8. Value what's most important.

"Too often, a vast collection of possessions ends up possessing its owner. The asset I most value, aside from health, is interesting, diverse, and long-standing friends."

9. Hit the brakes when you need to. 

“The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging.” 

10. Be bold. Be confident.

“I always knew I was going to be rich. I don't think I ever doubted it for a minute. ”  (My favorite)

Some other great advice :

"No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant."

" Wall Street is the only place where people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from the people who take the subway"

"It's better to hang out with the people better than you"

"I think you are out of yours mind if you keep taking jobs that you don't like because you think it will look good on your resume .Isn't that a little like saving up sex for your old age?"

"If you've been playing poker for half an hour and your still don't know who the patsy is, you are the patsy."

"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield"

"If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."

"It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. if you think about it, you will do things differently."