I predict Geshen is going to form a Symmetrical Triangle and will breakout anytime soon and going higher. PE wise is still not expensive. 

 Recently when i chat with friends, most of them would have said, Krono is good , with Quantum Storage China, krono future is bright, some of my friend put half of their wealth into Krono. When i advised them to be cautious, they don't like me.

 Here are some of the facts that i found and advised my friend Krono price may not sustainable. Short term goreng-goreng is more suitable.

The fact is , it is not new in Krono to propose Private Placement and then to acquire Quantum Storage. 

let's not dive into fundamental analysis , just simple historical data and see the characteristic of Krono.

In 2017 Krono acquired Quantum Storage HK which stir investors and traders' interest. It appeared on The Edge and everyone goreng it and invested in it thinking to hold long due to the super good bright future. That time when the news appeared on The Edge , it was around 0.960. However, the music stopped when the price shot to 1.2 and it keeps dropping for few months before it stabilized at price 50 cents to 60 cents. Many so called long term investors with strong faith in Krono has been losing money. 

The same story repeat now. i am not sure if the history will repeat. but i personally dislike a company to always do private placement and acquire companies that the directors has relationship with it. If the company is solid, they should acquire other company with own cash.

Serbak is one good example with many private placement. 

  

Today there is a news on Krono acquires remaining stake in Quantum China, with headline saying Krono is stepping footprint into China Market. A lot of traders quickly bought into krono thinking Krono will grow tremendously due to this news. in fact, this is only partially true. WHY ? 

because this news is old news. the same news headline was reported back in 2018 which managed to stir traders interest and made the price shoot up. That time Krono acquired 16.67% which already made krono stepping the footprint to china market since 2018. 

But, today, the headline again make it big big stepping into CHINA market so that it will catch traders eye. 

and, from past historical event, Krono price is always disappointing comparing to other tech/semicon stocks due to many rounds of Private Placement  were done which diluted the existing shareholders shares which i guess, was the reason that our profound Malaysian Investor , coldeye, sold his stake.

  

Support line 0.670 is broken. Krono is expected to be touching 0.490 - 0.500 level in less than a month. 

    

 Greatec form a double Top pattern which is a bearish sign. Traders need to be extra cautious as this chart pattern indicate the price will going south.

 Carlsberg just reported a profit of 21.73 cents per share for Q12021. which is lower than Q12020 due to covid19 pandemic. Q1 is the strongest quarter due to CNY sale. As a result, the rest of the year will be lower in revenue and profit. thus, with current price of RM21.xx , i believe it will going south for the next 6 months. Coupled with increased covid19 cases in Malaysia and Singapore. Q22021 will be very bad. 

Based on the chart, the generic price for carlsberg is RM24+- . Forget about the spike to RM31 as it was just pump and dump in a very short period.

Thus, the upside potential is limited even after the pandemic is over, but the downside risk is higher. 

 Unisem has broken the strong support line today. For short to mid term traders, better sell first as technically show there will be further downside.

 For long term investor. watch out the coming quarter if the earning can recover. The current quarter does not earn a decent profit to sustain the share price.

By refering to my previous article on Gtronic https://moneynology.blogspot.com/2021/04/gtronic-technical-analysis-after-news.html

It is confirmed today that the head and shoulder pattern is real and the neckline is broken today. 

The very solid support line at 2.30 is also broken as of now when this article is written. unless by end of the day it is able to close above the 2.30. Else, Technical side looks really bad.

 Rumours saying Apple might change the supply chain from AMS AG to STMICROELECTRONICS has made Gtronic share price dropping for the past few days. From TA point of view, it is head and shoulder which is a bad sign :

here i will not talk about fundamental as most of you already read it in many places, mostly talk about high ASP , thus the profit will shooting up.

So, i will touch on the technical side as i have been monitoring this pattern to form and it did.

1) now topglove is entering wave 4 , i foresee a wave 5 is coming which is a bullish sign.

2) price/volume divergence. As shown in yellow color line. This is another bullish sign again.

there is a high volume eaten up all the seller shares at 4:50pm on both counters. is this a sign that they are accumulating and preparing for tomorrow ?

is the correction done?

Supermax :

 TopGlove :

i  did a calculation on the TopGlove fair value at https://moneynology.blogspot.com/2020/06/2020-topglove-fair-value.html

now i am gonna using the same method to find the fair value for Supermax.

According toSupermax, the current glove Capacity is 26.1billion.(6.525 per quarter ), 2Q20 report showed revenue is 385m So, 0.385/6.525 =0.059 per piece.

Boss said will increase price. Analyst said will be 30% . For conservative calculation, I assume they increase 20% on May, June and July. So, 0.059 x 20%  = 0.0118 extra per piece.

My Profit Forecast for 2020/2021 = 0.0118 x 26.1billion pieces =  308million Ringgit.  (this is extra profit from the 20% increased of price)

we need to add with the profit before price increased. on 2Q20 profit is 30million. 4 quarter will be 120million.

As a result, My estimation total profit for 2020/21 will be 308m + 120m = 428million Ringgit

428 million / 1360million of shares = 0.3147 eps.

 Assume PE = 30, 0.3147 x 30 = RM9.44

Let's do some proper homework to find out the fair value atleast at the short term instead of just following the crowds chasing glove counter without knowing what price you are paying for.

According to analyst research report, the pre-CoVID19 ASP is USD0.029 per 1000.

Thus, the ASP is RM0.116 per piece.

Supermax said will increase ASP by 30%+
Topglove said will increase around 5% to 15% (according to analyst).

Thus, i assume for April, May and June the average increase on ASP price is 10%.

0.116 x 10% = RM 0.0116.

On 2019, the total glove capacity produced is 73.4Billion pieces. Since topglove said after March ,the utilization is max at 100%, so, i would take 73.4 billion for calculation.

Thus, the extra profit gain from the 10% increased of price will be 0.0116 x 73.4 billion = 851million ringgit per annum.

according to 2Q2020 result, the net profit is 115million.

So, my profit estimation for the next 1 year = 115*4 + 851 = 1311 million ringgit.

the total shares is 2608m.

thus , my forecast EPS is 1311/2608 = 0.50 cent.

i would say the normal PE for topglove is 40 if we look at pre-covid19, it is trading at PE 40+.

So, my fair value for Topglove on 2020-2021 is 0.50 x 40 = RM20.

Rexit has just broken the Triangle that was started to form 4 months ago. Today, it finally break it as of time of writing , 10:45am.

According to this chart pattern, it is a bullish sign. It should atleast goes up another 20 cents from the break out point.

Project Name : M Vertica
Developer      : Mah Sing
Tenure            : Leasehold
Title               : Commercial
Location        : Stadium Badminton Maluri
Price              : Starting from RM478 800 for 850 sqft

M Vertica has a very big good facilities areas

3000 plus of units

High Tense Cable is nearby

This is the stadium that gonna abolished

The parking rate is quite expensive on Weekday, RM3 per hour.

But on weekend will be only RM 3 per entry according to the board, but currently only charge RM 1 per entry as of time of writing.

Taken on 15 July 17

Taken on 15 July 2017.

Inari has just broken the 3.39 resistance. From technical point of view, it's very bullish now.

My observation on the recent sell-down on Inari was actually a strategical planning by KWAP (kumpulan Wang Persaraan). It is predicted and actually told by the management that the 3rd quarter (Period end at 31 Mar 2016) will be the worst one. As a result, KWAP was waiting for the right timing to sell-down the stocks to create a panic selling by other traders/small fishes because everyone (especially who don't know that the 3rd quarter will be a bad one) thought inari will sharp drop like Gtronic.

From the chart and shareholding changes, it is clear only KWAP was selling down the stocks. But recently KWAP bought back majority of the shares that they had disposed during April and Inari stock price is coming back to the normal level.

On the other words, the recent big volatility of inari stock price was caused by KWAP , and since they are accumulating back the stocks, we should re-assess back the fundamental of Inari and decide if we should invest in it or not. 

on my personal view, the short term view on Inari is very promising. 

Below were the transactions done by KWAP.

Type of transaction	Description of Others	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted (RM)
Acquired		13 Apr 2016	500,000
Acquired		14 Apr 2016	2,233,300
Disposed		15 Apr 2016	30,000
Acquired		15 Apr 2016	2,000,000
Acquired		19 Apr 2016	141,500
Disposed		19 Apr 2016	2,800,000

KWAP started performed massive sell-down on 19 April 2016

Type of transaction	Description of Others	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted (RM)
Acquired		20 Apr 2016	500,000
Disposed		20 Apr 2016	3,700,000
Acquired		21 Apr 2016	53,200
Disposed		21 Apr 2016	3,000,000
Acquired		21 Apr 2016	441,000
Acquired		22 Apr 2016	47,400
Disposed		22 Apr 2016	64,400
Acquired		25 Apr 2016	47,900
Disposed		26 Apr 2016	1,292,700
Disposed		26 Apr 2016	2,000,000

on 27 April, KWAP Sold 3070000 shares and bought all of them back. it can be witnessed in the stock chart that on that day a hammer was formed.

Type of transaction	Description of Others	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted (RM)
Disposed		27 Apr 2016	3,368,283
Acquired		27 Apr 2016	3,070,000
Disposed		28 Apr 2016	1,913,300
Disposed		29 Apr 2016	80,000

KWAP started buying back a lot on 10 May 2016

Type of transaction	Description of Others	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted (RM)
Acquired		10 May 2016	2,077,700

Type of transaction	Description of Others	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted (RM)
Acquired		13 May 2016	500,000
Acquired		16 May 2016	500,000
Acquired		17 May 2016	800,000

Type of transaction	Description of Others	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted (RM)
Acquired		18 May 2016	1,000,000
Acquired		19 May 2016	450,000
Acquired		20 May 2016	276,900

Type of transaction	Description of Others	Date of change	No of securities	Price Transacted (RM)
Acquired		25 May 2016	3,000,000
Disposed		25 May 2016	866,600
Acquired		26 May 2016	195,200
Acquired		27 May 2016	1,000,000